Earth and Environmental Sciences

This study presents a multi-proxy reconstruction of Holocene growing season thermal conditions (GDD 5 ) in Central Europe based on Betula nana subfossil leaf micro-phenology and pollen data from a 12-m-long sediment sequence at Linje peatland. A site-specific inference model was developed using modern B. nana leaves to estimate growing season heat accumulation. The model shows lower sensitivity compared to subarctic calibrations but captures variability in GDD 5 within the local climatic range. Overlapping undulation index (UI) values observed in modern and subfossil material across differing thermal conditions highlight the importance of regional calibration. Reconstructed GDD 5 trends indicate variability in growing season conditions during the Early Holocene and from ∼5450 cal. yr BP to the present and show the strongest agreement with pollen-based estimates during the first half of the Late Holocene. As GDD 5 is an important factor controlling agricultural productivity, such reconstructions are important for understanding past changes in seasonality and their potential implications for prehistoric land use and settlement dynamics. The results demonstrate the applicability of combined micro-phenological and palynological approaches for reconstructing past growing season thermal conditions.

Subalpine soils store a significant amount of soil organic carbon (SOC), yet the factors driving its landscape-scale variability remain poorly constrained. Although topography, soil type, soil texture, and moisture are recognised as key drivers of SOC concentration, their interactive effects in subalpine environments remain largely unexplored. In particular, the extent to which soil type shapes landscape-scale SOC patterns remains unclear. In this study, we assessed SOC concentration, soil type, soil moisture, soil texture and elemental composition across 100 plots in two subalpine sites in the Swiss Alps. Using factor analysis, we generated three standardised continuous predictors from our dataset, namely, mineral content, sedimentary rock influence and texture index. We investigated the joint influence of these continuous predictors on SOC variability at the landscape scale in a linear mixed-effects model with topographic position (plain vs. slope areas), soil depth and soil type as additional categorical predictors. We found that soil type diversity was greater on the plain than on the slope, reflecting a greater hydrological heterogeneity. Plains supported a broad spectrum of soils, ranging from organic-rich Histosols to mineral-rich Fluvisols, while Cambisols dominated slopes. Although plains exhibited higher moisture and SOC concentration, and slopes were characterised by higher clay fractions and lithogenous elements, topographic position was not a significant predictor for the spatial distribution of SOC. Our linear mixed-effect model identified mineral content as the strongest predictor of SOC concentration, followed by the texture index and sedimentary rock influence. SOC concentration decreased as mineral content and sedimentary rock influence increased, and as the texture index shifted towards a lower proportion of clay-sized particles. Crucially, while mineral content integrates much of the variability described by the categorical variables included in the model, soil type diversity effectively captures the range of mineral content that drives SOC concentration across our sampling locations and soil depth. Our findings suggest that relying strictly on topographic position to assess SOC spatial variability overlooks important nuances in soil property distribution. We therefore suggest combining topographic position and soil type assessment into a robust framework for predicting landscape-scale SOC variability in subalpine environments.

Cerium (Ce) is a redox-sensitive element, making it an effective tracer for continental weathering processes. To elucidate mechanisms of Ce isotopic fractionation during chemical weathering processes, we analyzed Ce isotopic compositions across a well-developed latosol profile derived from gabbros in the Leizhou Peninsula, Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, Southern China. This weathering profile exhibits significant Ce depletion and redistribution, as evidenced by large variations in Ce concentrations (22.5–209.7 μg/g) and τ Th, Ce values ranging from −36.26 to 170.86%. Latosol samples show a small but detectable δ 142/140 Ce variation from −0.061 to 0.053‰ (mean = 0.003 ± 0.053‰, 2S.D., n = 38), which is indistinguishable from that of fresh gabbro ( δ 142/140 Ce = 0.015 ± 0.046‰, 2S.D.) within analytical uncertainty. The δ 142/140 Ce values lack systematic correlations with TOC, aeolian dust, clay minerals, and Fe-Mn oxides, suggesting limited isotopic fractionation associated with these phases. In contrast, a positive correlation with pH (R 2 = 0.49) identifies pH as a likely key control on Ce isotopic composition in this system. Our analysis shows that Ce 3+ released via mineral dissolution is rapidly oxidized in-situ and immobilized as CeO 2 nanoparticles, while pH governs Ce mobility by regulating the assembly and dissociation of Fe oxide-OM-Ce ternary composites. This pH-dependent oxidation-adsorption coupling effectively suppresses stable Ce isotopic fractionation throughout the weathering profile. These findings clarify the geochemical behavior of Ce in intensely weathered laterites and provide novel constraints on the mechanisms controlling terrestrial Ce fluxes to the oceans.

Reconstructing surface uplift rates in active orogens is critical for understanding how deep Earth processes shape topography, but such estimates require both rapid uplift and preservation of young marine deposits. The southern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP) in Türkiye provides an exceptional example, preserving Upper Miocene and late Middle-Pleistocene marine deposits at ∼2.2 km and ∼1.1 km of elevation, respectively, indicating multiphase uplift. We investigated the TOL-1 section in the Mut Basin, which preserves late Middle-Pleistocene (Marine Isotope Stage 7) marine deposits at 1177 m above mean sea level (amsl); the highest in the world. The section records two key calcareous nannofossil bioevents: the last occurrence of Pseudoemiliania lacunosa (0.46 Ma) and the first occurrence of Emiliania huxleyi (0.26 Ma). Foraminiferal biostratigraphy, marked by the consistent presence of Globigerinella calida from the base, indicates that deposition began after ca. 0.53 Ma. Ostracod assemblages reveal a transition from upper epibathyal to littoral environments, with a shallowing-upward trend beginning at ca. 0.40 Ma. Paleomagnetic data indicate normal polarity, consistent with deposition during the current normal polarity Brunhes Chron. By integrating biostratigraphy, paleobathymetric reconstructions (∼50 m below mean sea level), and sea-level estimates at 0.23 Ma (∼−18 m), we calculated a mean uplift rate of ∼5.2 m/k.y. This exceptionally high rate may be attributed to slab break-off of the still-subducting eastern Cyprus slab combined with mantle flow from the Arabian slab window at the Eastern Anatolian collision zone. These findings provide a rare high-resolution temporal benchmark for linking stratigraphic records of marine deposition with deep-seated processes and rapid surface uplift in active convergent margins.

The mid-to-late Amazonian period on Mars (ca. 0−1 Ga) was cold and hyperarid, with an extremely limited role of liquid water. Abundant midlatitude viscous flow features (VFFs; putative debris-covered glaciers) that formed during this time are thought to be the partially retreated remnants of larger, thicker, predominantly cold-based ice masses deposited by snowfall. Small numbers of eskers (ridges of glaciofluvial sediment deposited in ice-confined meltwater tunnels) associated with VFFs have been attributed to rare, spatially restricted past subglacial melting driven by localized geothermal heating. Here, we present two key findings based on analysis of orbital images and elevation data. First, VFF-associated eskers distributed throughout a 650-km-long plateau system in the Tempe Terra region necessitate more widespread occurrences of Amazonian subglacial melting and more spatially extensive heating (e.g., a geothermal hotspot and/or regional climate change) than previously understood. Second, two of the eskers are associated with a landform assemblage consistent with meltwater drainage into a subglacial paleolake. This suggests that VFFs were capable of supporting subglacial lakes when they were thicker and more extensive. Glaciers in Mars’ midlatitudes are key targets for robotic missions aiming to search for life, reconstruct environmental change, and characterize in situ water resources for human missions. On Earth, subglacial lakes support microbial ecosystems under extreme conditions, and paleolake deposits have high potential for preserving biosignatures in the geologic record. Hence, subglacial paleolake deposits proximal to Mars’ midlatitude glaciers represent high-priority targets for future exploration.

Ecuadorian aquaculture plays an increasingly important role in food security, providing a sustainable complement to capture fisheries. Manabí constitutes a key economic sector that contributes to employment generation, income diversification, and supply of high-quality protein. However, the sector’s heterogeneity and limited legal registration of enterprises hinder the development of policies and targeted interventions. This study characterizes aquaculture enterprises in Manabí, integrating productive, technological, and socio-economic variables obtained from field surveys. Three distinct entrepreneurship patterns were identified: small-scale, informal farms cultivating native species with low technology but characteristics that may contribute to socio-ecological resilience; semi-formal producers operating with intermediate technology and mixed species; and freshwater shrimp farms operating at the largest relative scale within the sample, though still small-scale and family-based, with moderate technological development and market integration limited mainly to local and regional markets. The typology focused on a gradient in formalization, technological sophistication, and market orientation among enterprises. These findings provide a comprehensive understanding of aquaculture diversity in Manabí and offer a practical framework for differentiated policy design using a Strategic Producer Positioning Map. Strengthening formalization, technological innovation, environmental management, and social inclusion is essential to enhance the sector’s sustainability and competitiveness, contributing to sustainable blue economy development in coastal Ecuador.

Sustainable historic-town conservation requires preserving historical patterns and cultural memory while understanding how spatial environments shape everyday perception. Using Yun’an Ancient Salt Town in Chongqing, China, this study develops a three-layer framework of spatial topology, scene interfaces, and historical semantic elements. Space syntax, deep-learning image recognition, rule-based coding, image-based questionnaires, Spearman correlation, random forest regression, and SHAP were used to examine perceived historicity, safety, attractiveness, and comfort. The analysis combined axial models for 1985, 2004, and 2024 with 140 images—55 human view and 85 aerial view—each evaluated by 264 valid respondents. Yun’an’s street network shifted from a salt-production and transport structure toward modern traffic corridors; integration declined in the historic core, and intelligibility fell from 0.13 in 2004 to 0.07 in 2024. At the human-view scale, modern interference was negatively associated with historicity and attractiveness, whereas stairs, traditional components, and micro-historical objects were positively associated with historicity. At the aerial-view scale, historical visibility, character integrity, and blue-green-space indicators were associated with historicity, attractiveness, and comfort. Cross-validated random forest performance was strongest for aerial-view historicity and limited for other outcomes. The findings support a human-centered, culturally sustainable renewal pathway linking historical-street continuity, townscape integration, blue-green quality, and heritage-node activation.

Activated carbon is a highly porous adsorbent material that is often used to treat wastewater using physical and chemical adsorption. Agricultural and urban biomass waste valorization to activated carbon is a low-cost, renewable solution to commercial adsorbents, and can help prevent waste from tree pruning from being dumped in landfills or openly burned. In this study, the ability of the ground and unground Ficus nitida leaves to efficiently adsorb Rhodamine B dye and total chromium from model aqueous solutions was investigated. Chemical activation was performed using phosphoric acid (H3PO4) at different impregnation ratios (1:1, 2:1, and 4:1). Samples obtained as a result of the above activation were labeled G1–G3 (ground) and UG1–UG3 (unground). The adsorption test showed that the samples with the highest activation ratio (G3 and UG3) gave the best results, removing 92% and 94% RhB, respectively, in 20 minutes. After 24 h, sample G3 showed the best efficiency of 73.31% (13.35 ppm remaining) in chromium removal, where the adsorption kinetics were well described by the pseudo-second-order model (R2 > 0.98), indicating that there may be some chemical interactions occurring during the adsorption process along with physisorption, and the RhB adsorption isotherms for sample UG3 were well described by the Langmuir isotherm (R2 > 0.95). The higher activation ratio and grinding increased the carbon content (up to 90% C for G3), surface functional groups, and textural properties (BET surface area of 699 m2/g and total pore volume of 3.06 cm3/g). Furthermore, reusability tests over five consecutive cycles demonstrated the excellent recyclability of sample G3, retaining removal efficiencies of 80.5% for RhB and 50.2% for total chromium. The results revealed that Ficus nitida leaf-based AC can be used as an efficient, economical, and reusable adsorbent material for sustainable environmental cleanup and water purification systems and will create a circular economy for waste management.

Understanding building operational carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is essential for sustainable urban planning, yet variations in emissions across building types remain poorly characterized. This study integrated top-down and bottom-up approaches to estimate building-scale CO2 emissions, capturing fine-scale emission patterns while maintaining consistency with aggregate energy statistics. Taking Guiyang as a case study, electricity consumption was simulated using the Designer’s Simulation Tool (DeST), while natural gas (NG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption were disaggregated using an area-proportional allocation method. Emission factors were then applied to estimate monthly CO2 emissions. Results showed that monthly building CO2 emissions ranged from 0.81 to 1.09 million tons. Significant spatial disparities were observed, with core districts contributing more than 22% of total emissions, whereas peripheral districts accounted for only approximately 6%. Residential buildings produced the highest total emissions, averaging 433 thousand tons per month, while shopping malls showed the highest emission intensity, reaching 8.08 kg/m2 in July. The different building types and different seasons had different emissions, with residential buildings showing higher emissions in winter, whereas hotels and shopping malls experienced higher emissions during summer. The proposed framework extends existing approaches, providing reliable building CO2 data for urban low-carbon planning and targeted mitigation.

Winter water allocation in regulated plain river networks requires an operational link between hydrological low water benchmarks and replenishment decisions. This study focused on the Lixiahe plain river networks; utilizing winter water level records from nine stations during 2006–2021, five hydrological methods were applied to derive candidate water level benchmarks. A one-dimensional MIKE 11 model was applied to simulate total upstream replenishment scenarios of 40–400 m3/s and to establish station-specific stage–discharge relationships under fixed downstream boundaries and structure operation rules. Within the simulated range, the candidate benchmarks corresponded to scenario-specific replenishment requirements of 153.94–268.49 m3/s. The framework supports comparison of winter water allocation strategies and identification of controlling stations, but ecological sufficiency requires independent evidence from species, habitat, thermal, dissolved oxygen, and water quality responses.

Urban green infrastructure (UGI) serves as a core pillar of sustainable urban development, delivering multiple benefits including urban heat island mitigation, stormwater regulation, and health promotion. However, allergenic pollen released by urban vegetation represents a typical ecosystem disservice, creating a prominent sustainability trade-off between greening benefits and residents’ allergy risk. For a long time, research in this field has evolved along two largely independent lines: vegetation allergenic hazard assessment and atmospheric pollen exposure analysis. Marked disconnections persist in indicator systems, spatial scales, and outcome translation, and an integrated spatial assessment framework remains lacking. Based on a systematic review of 127 publications from the Web of Science Core Collection (2000~2025) using framework synthesis methods, this study constructs a hazard–exposure–risk–planning (HERP) framework for the spatial assessment of allergenic pollen risk in UGI. This paper systematically synthesizes the core indicators, technical approaches and inherent limitations of each framework layer and identifies five key barriers: inconsistent indicator definitions, lack of cross-validation between surface vegetation and atmospheric pollen data, missing population vulnerability layer, insufficient multi-scale coupling, and weak translation of research into planning practice. The proposed framework provides a potential comparable and reproducible standardized pathway for cross-regional allergenic risk assessment and offers methodological support for healthy urban planning that balances ecosystem services and residents’ respiratory health.

Background: Pharmaceutical waste presents significant economic and environmental challenges, necessitating systemic interventions for sustainable healthcare. Community pharmacists are pivotal in mitigating this waste through optimized dispensing, patient education, and facilitating safe disposal. Methods: A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted to evaluate the perceptions, practices and perceived barriers of community pharmacists in Saudi Arabia. Data regarding barriers and mitigation strategies were collected using a five-point Likert scale. Results: A total of 275 pharmacists participated, with an average age of 33.86 ± 7.46 years. Pharmacists showed strong understanding of the economic impact of medication waste, with an average score of 4.41 ± 0.85. The lowest score, 2.80 ± 1.25, reflected poor public awareness about proper disposal practices. The most identified source of waste was the discarding of unopened medication packages, scoring 3.80 ± 1.05. The top barrier was the lack of national guidelines, with a score of 3.82 ± 1.01. Unified patient records and e-prescribing were viewed as the most effective strategies, scoring 4.17 ± 0.94. Practice gaps were clear, as 27.64% of pharmacies did not provide any disposal service. Conclusions: Saudi community pharmacists demonstrate high readiness but are hindered by logistical gaps and fragmented frameworks. Achieving sustainable pharmaceutical stewardship requires standardized national guidelines, formalized take-back pathways, and the expansion of digital tools like Wasfaty to align clinical practice with Saudi Vision 2030 sustainability goals.

Abstract Co-production is essential for usable and useful climate services, yet expert-driven, supply-side approaches and limited engagement persist. We investigate the relationship between users’ current climate-service use and desired needs for completely new climate services for nature-based solutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, based on 530 interviews. We found a 39–53% overlap between current use and desired need priorities (Cohen’s Kappa 0.4–0.5, p < 0.0001). Stakeholder type did not predict use–need overlap (rate ratios 0.95–0.99, p > 0.08), though location did (0.88–1.27). Nearly all respondents (96%) reported using or needing climate services, but these services require strengthening through integration of knowledge systems and improvements in accessibility, timeliness, skills, trust, and climate-change literacy. Gaps between current use and desired needs point to priorities for new climate services, including integrated climate-risk information and community and digital sharing channels. Simply asking users what they need may blur the distinction between strengthening existing services and identifying genuinely new needs.

Abstract. The Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs) in the northern Indian Ocean (i.e., the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) are among the most intense OMZs in the world's oceans. While there has been no clear evidence of a significant change in the Bay of Bengal OMZ (BoB OMZ), the Arabian Sea OMZ (AS OMZ) followed a global trend and expanded in the last decades until 2013. However, this trend has reversed, and the AS OMZ appears to have shrunk since 2013. The processes that stabilize the OMZ in the Bay of Bengal and regulate its expansion and contraction in the Arabian Sea are poorly understood. In this study, we redefined the source water types (SWTs) and employed an extended optimum multi-parameter (eOMP) analysis to investigate changes in the oxygen supply due to mixing and biological oxygen consumption in these OMZs based on empirical data from the Global Ocean Data Analysis Project version 2 (GLODAPv2) and data from a research cruise conducted with the German research vessel SONNE in 2024. In line with previous studies, our findings reveal a reversal in the expansion trend of the AS OMZ and an increase in oxygen supply to the BoB OMZ between 1995 and recent years. In both OMZs, this was due to an increased northward influx of oxygen-rich SWTs from the southern Indian Ocean, combined with a reduced contribution from relatively oxygen-poor local and equatorial SWTs. We also observed that the increased physical oxygen supply was accompanied by enhanced biological oxygen consumption, which partly offset the effect of this increase on the oxygen concentration in the OMZs. These changes are likely linked to a reorganization and slowdown of the shallow Indian Ocean meridional overturning circulation (IO-MOC), associated with the weakening of the Asian monsoon and the global thermohaline circulation (THC). This slowdown seems to have increased the residence time of water masses, which is consistent with the observed increase in biological oxygen consumption, whereas the weaker cross-equatorial circulation appears to have favored the northward meridional transport of oxygen-rich water from the southern Indian Ocean. This suggests a coupling between the OMZs in the Indian Ocean and climate-driven changes in the THC, as also indicated by palaeoceanographic records. However, the climate-related drivers differ between the past and present.

Abstract The recent triple-dip La Niña event from 2020 to 2023 in the equatorial Pacific, which occurred without a preceding strong El Niño, challenges the traditional understanding of multi-year La Niña dynamics governed solely by the recharge oscillator theory. This study investigates the mechanisms behind the initiation of the 2020–2023 La Niña and evaluates the predictive capabilities of a fully coupled climate model. Utilizing a multi-year climate prediction system based on the Community Earth System Model version 2 with ocean data assimilation techniques, we assess the contributions of various climate factors, including inter-basin forcings such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and tropical Atlantic warming (TAW). Our findings reveal that, while the model underestimates the role of the IOD, the combination of positive IOD and TAW substantially influenced first-dip La Niña initiation through the eastward propagation of velocity potential anomalies. Partial ocean data assimilation experiments corroborate these results and further suggest that accurately predicting the phases of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) is essential for forecasting the initiation process. Our hindcast experiment indicates that the La Niña event typically decays within one year rather than persisting, suggesting that distinct drivers, such as PMM, South Pacific, or aerosol forcing, may have influenced the second and third phases of cooling. These insights highlight the critical role of inter-basin interactions (IOD, TAW, and PMM forcings) in extending ENSO predictability and improving long-term climate forecasting capabilities.

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are projected to decline rapidly in the near future as air quality regulations strengthen. Crucially, however, the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to these reductions remains a major source of uncertainty. Here, we use multi-model ensembles from Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) to provide a diagnostic assessment of tropical circulation changes in response to global and regional aerosol reductions during 2015-2050. We find that global aerosol reductions lead to a poleward expansion of the Northern Hemisphere tropical width by 0.10° ± 0.08°, a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation by 1.77 ± 1.09 109 kg s-1 and a strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation by 2.53 ± 1.30 109 kg s-1. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) also shows a northward shift by 0.19° ± 0.10°. These meridional circulation changes consistently emerge across the regional experiments, with aerosol reductions over East Asia and North America+Europe contributing the most. Although the response of the zonal Pacific Walker circulation to global aerosol reductions is not statistically significant, models show a strengthening tendency that is significant under Africa+Middle East aerosol reductions. Notably, the ITCZ response to greenhouse gas forcing is weak and uncertain, whereas aerosol reductions produce a stronger and more robust response, even in the regional experiments. Our results suggest that both global and regional aerosol reduction significantly contribute to large-scale tropical circulation changes.

Abstract Streamflow prediction is essential for water resources management and flood mitigation but remains challenging in large basins due to spatial heterogeneity. Machine learning (ML) models have been widely applied to streamflow prediction, typically relying on explicit routing modules, whereas the potential of pure ML models remains underexplored. This study presents a purely ML‐based model (Convolutional Entity‐Aware Long Short‐Term Memory) for fully distributed streamflow prediction. Spatial cross‐validation across 50 gauges in the Amazon Basin yields a median Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 and an R 2 of 0.84, comparable to or exceeding benchmark models with routing modules. The model reduces annual peak flow bias (APFB = 0.12) and accurately reproduced spatial autocorrelation patterns (Pearson's r > 0.6, Moran's I > 0.8, and Geary's C < 0.2), indicating spatially consistent grid‐scale discharge predictions. These findings demonstrate the potential of a pure data‐driven ML model for fully distributed streamflow prediction in ungauged basins while ensuring spatial consistency.

Monitoring forest degradation using medium-resolution optical sensors often results in an underestimation of the actual ecological impacts, limiting conservation strategies in threatened regions. We evaluated the forest disturbance dynamics (2004–2025) in the Permanent Production Forests of Tahuamanu, Madre de Dios, Peru. We processed multitemporal Landsat images in Google Earth Engine to map change trajectories by applying Spectral Mixture Analysis to derive the Normalized Difference Fraction Index (NDFI) integrated with a stratified area estimator. This approach yielded overall accuracies of ≥93%. Our findings show that structural degradation is replacing deforestation as the main driver of forest alteration. By 2025, the footprint of this disturbance, which silently affects the understory, had quadrupled the extent of deforestation, a trend evidenced by the stratified adjustment that revealed over 10,000 hectares of structural damage previously hidden under the label of intact forest, demonstrating the typical omission bias of passive sensors. Relying on raw maps means underestimating biomass lost to understory degradation. To address this systematic bias, it is necessary to operationalize the NDFI model along with a rigorous stratified estimation. With this combined approach, a scalable, cost-effective, and statistically robust framework is offered to monitor the subtle degradation that traditional mapping systems overlook. To our knowledge, this is the first long-term, area-corrected assessment of forest disturbance within Peru’s oldest formal timber concessions, and it shows that degradation persists and accelerates even under a regulated management model.

Abstract North China, a densely populated region, has witnessed some of the nation's most serious air pollution events in recent years. This study reveals that extreme air pollution in this region, with a regional average PM2.5 concentration of 134.8 μg m-3 , occurs most frequently in the month of January, accounting for 53% of all winter events. Using a causal inference framework, these events are attributable to circulation anomalies that coincide with a midwinter suppression of the North Pacific storm track (NPST). More specifically, the NPST weakens significantly in January, corresponding to an anticyclonic anomaly generated by the eddy heat flux. This anticyclonic anomaly supports Rossby wave trains along the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in a potent northeast Asian anomalous anticyclone approximately 10 days later. As a result, stagnant air and poor ventilation conditions prevail over North China, contributing to extreme air pollution. These findings offer scientific guidance for targeted emissions reduction.

Abstract Near-surface extreme winds profoundly affect human society, yet process-based understanding of their changes under climate forcings remains limited. This study systematically investigates the responses of high (HWE) and low (LWE) wind extremes (10-meter) to climate forcings using a hierarchy of climate model experiments from multiple general circulation models that participated in the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project. We analyze idealized atmosphere-only aquaplanet (Aqua) simulations and more realistic land-atmosphere (AMIP) simulations to identify robust responses to climate forcings and trace the sources of structural uncertainty. In Aqua simulations, tropical LWE changes exhibit large inter-model spread, which can be partly traced to model-dependent responses of low-pressure systems. In contrast, extratropical HWE intensify robustly with surface warming, linked to the strengthening of high-latitude extratropical cyclones. The AMIP simulations confirm the robust intensification of extratropical HWE. The more realistic boundary conditions in AMIP simulations act as a constraint, reducing inter-model spread in tropical zonal means compared to Aqua simulations. A comparison of uniform and patterned 4-K warming experiments suggests that the global magnitude of warming, rather than the specific warming pattern, dominates the large-scale responses of wind extremes. However, regional projections of extreme wind changes, especially over land, remain highly uncertain due to divergences in model formulations. Case studies reveal that major disagreements in HWE changes can stem from fundamental differences in representing the type and seasonality of extreme-producing weather systems. Our results underscore that reducing uncertainty in regional wind projections requires constraining the physical representation of weather systems in climate models.

Satellite-based monitoring of volcanic thermal activity commonly relies on Mid-InfraRed Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP MIR ), sensitive to high-temperature (≳600 K) surfaces, or on Thermal InfraRed Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP TIR ), which captures lower-temperature (≲600 K), spatially diffuse emissions. Because these approaches sample different portions of the volcanic thermal spectrum, each alone provides an incomplete view of volcanic heat release. We present a unified thermal framework that integrates these parameters with two new complementary metrics, namely the Total Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP Tot ), derived from combined MIR and TIR signals, and the VRP Ratio (VRP MIR / VRP TIR ), a dimensionless proxy for effective temperature, capturing thermal structure independently of the feature's size. Synthetic modelling and satellite observations show that this integrated approach enables discrimination between different types of volcanic activity and suggest that existing MIR-only inventories underestimate total heat release by factors of 2–20, implying substantial upward revisions to global volcanic heat budgets. Application of the framework at Sabancaya volcano reveals precursory evidence months before the November 2016 eruption that is invisible in single-band observations. We envisage that this simple, transferable methodology will enable a revision of global volcanic thermal budgets and will provide enhanced capability for volcano monitoring and detection of thermal precursors.

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP), the most active TC basin worldwide, is generally viewed as being controlled by remote oceanic forcing, especially the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, oceanic forcing alone cannot fully explain variability in TC genesis. Here we show that the record-low WNP typhoon season of 2023 emerged from strong seasonal asymmetry rather than uniform suppression. Despite unfavorable large-scale ocean conditions, summer TC genesis frequency remained near climatology because a weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) triggered an atmospheric Kelvin-wave response that induced a WNP cyclonic circulation anomaly. This circulation offset the ocean-forced anticyclone and maintained environmental conditions favorable for TC genesis. In contrast, remote ocean forcing dominated during autumn, producing unprecedented suppression and driving the seasonal minimum. These results highlight a pathway by which ISM variability can counteract basin-scale oceanic forcing and regulate WNP TC variability, with potential implications for improving TC prediction.

Abstract. Global storm-resolving simulations with kilometer resolution are increasingly replacing traditional climate modeling approaches and show particular potential for resolving the dynamics and effects of deep moist convection. These modern modeling methods are moving toward sub-km scales, leading to extremely high energy and resource requirements. This makes iterations, parameter optimizations, and sensitivity studies no longer easily feasible. For the class of propagating, large-scale weather phenomena such as hurricanes, high-resolution limited-area approaches in combination with Lagrangian methods are therefore of interest, in which refined grids are shifted along the path of the phenomenon under consideration. To create this capacity for the ICON atmospheric model, this study develops a flexible workflow toolkit to enable efficient simulations of hurricanes on a sub-km scale. Our approach leverages the flexibility that ICON offers through the ability to create custom grids. The concept divides hurricane tracks into overlapping temporal windows of 12–24 h and generates customized grid segments that follow the hurricane's movement. The technical implementation automates key components of the workflow, including hurricane tracking, flexible grid generation, and preparation and merging of initial conditions across successive segments. The application of the workflow is demonstrated using Hurricane Paulette (2020) as an example, for which high-resolution simulations with grid spacings down to 300 m were performed using different segment configurations. The results show that the hurricane track remains consistent with the base run and depends mainly on the across-track width of the chosen configuration, while intensity metrics such as minimum pressure and maximum wind speed show significant sensitivities to resolution in our multi-nested setups. The efficiency gains are significant compared to traditional approaches with fixed limited-area domains: replacing a fixed domain with a track-following tube reduces resource requirements by factors of 2–8, and segmenting the tube into short, frequently re-initialized intervals adds a further factor of 2–6. Analysis of re-initialization effects shows systematic but manageable impacts during segment transitions. Nevertheless, the efficiency gains achieved by our method are so substantial that they justify the acceptance of the re-initialization effects. Our segment-based approach in the hurricane-centric reference system now allows for more flexible regional hurricane simulations with the ICON model and more efficient investigation of new research questions regarding the sensitivity of hurricane cloud systems at very high resolutions.